Tennessee’s Warning for Republicans

Take the Tennessee warning seriously. These are actual votes, not polls, mind you.

Now, my home state is not in doubt for the Republicans. Trump won the Volunteer State by over 1 million votes in 2024. It’s one of the few states where he won the womens’ vote, in fact.

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BUT…the recent Tennessee county mayoral races on August 6, 2026…send a VERY serious warning shot to the GOP, and here are the details.

My home of Hamilton County is solidly red, albeit with the blue-leaning downtown of Chattanooga. In 2022 the mayoral race for the county was a +16% margin for Weston Wamp, the scion of local political GOP royalty and a very talented young politician.

In 2026, just weeks ago, he only won +5% in a shockingly close race.

In addition to the surprising margin, looking at the simple number of votes the total Dem vote in this really red area rose by a massive 40% vs. the last mayoral election, vs. GOP vote rising only 17% . That turnout represents the massive enthusiasm/anger on the Left.

Even worse for the GOP, look at this map of movement vs. the 2024 presidential race. In 2024, Trump dominated the county, even doing well in normally blue parts of downtown Chattanooga. But in 2026, a generally popular and un-controversial county executive just squeaked by.

NOT a good sign for November.

This map (credit to Don Johnson, found on Twitter/X @ohtmldon) shows the precinct-level moves in this 2026 race vs. the 2024 presidential…

Hamilton County TN 2026 county mayoral change in vote vs. 2024 presidential, Source: Don Johnson

Lest you suspect something local and particular was happening in Chattanooga, consider another red county in eastern Tennessee, Knox County, where the University of Tennessee is located. It’s a lot like Hamilton County, a red jurisdiction with a blue city…that votes reliably Republican on the whole.

The current county Mayor is Glenn Jacobs, a very popular figure who’s also known for his extensive pre-politics career as a professional wrestler under the stage name “Kane.” He’s a really talented politician and could well be elected statewide someday. But he’s term limited for the county, and the race to replace him was also shockingly close.

The GOP only won Knox County on August 6 by +4%, and the map is a lot like the Hamilton map – though even bluer — when it comes to 2026 partisan moves vs. the 2024 presidential vote:

Knox County TN 2026 mayoral change in vote vs. 2024 presidential, Source: Don Johnson