Wisconsin: What Does Middle America Want?
New polling from the most important swing state…
New polling from the most important swing state…
Wisconsin is the place to poll to learn what middle America is thinking – and not just because of geography.
Yes, the Badger State is the literal and metaphorical heartland of America. But in addition, it is perennially the closest of all the swing states. In President Trump’s historic 2024 sweep of battleground states, the closest contest was Wisconsin, with only 29,000 votes deciding the state for Trump, out of over 3.3 million total votes cast.
Right now, my newest Wisconsin polling suggests 3 important insights:
1. The WI governor’s race is WIDE OPEN
2. The economic mood is very sour, and Americans now blame the GOP
3. Despite that big economic hurdle, the Midterms are very competitive
WISCONSIN GOVERNOR’S RACE
Governor Tony Evers surprised Wisconsin by announcing that he would not seek a third term. So, the battle for governor is wide open in Wisconsin.
Some familiar names are in the lead for both parties, but there are very large numbers of undecided voters and a whole lot of campaign season to come. In addition, some of the highest-polling candidates have not yet formally committed to running, casting further uncertainty on the contest.
Right now, here is what our polling shows:
Democrats (planning to vote in Dem primary, 40% of total respondents)
Barnes 21%
Kaul 8%
Rodriguez 6%
Crowley 6%
Undecided 52%
Republicans (planning to vote in GOP primary, 39% of total respondents)
Hovde 25%
Tiffany 17%
Michael 12%
Undecided 37%
On the Democrat side, the substantial lead for Mandela Barnes reflects the growing power of the younger, more radical wing of the party nationally. Barnes is a former state legislator and former lieutenant governor who lost narrowly in 2022 vs. Senator Ron Johnson who won re-election to the US Senate.
Before politics, Barnes worked as a community activist in Milwaukee. He is, in reality, an inferior facsimile of Barack Obama – meaning Barnes is just as radical and devoid of real substance, but without the rhetorical skills and charismatic flair of the former president.
Nevertheless, Barnes seems to capture the current zeitgeist of a party that elevates young firebrand leftists like Zohran Mamdani and Ilhan Omar. Of course, the challenge for the Democrats will be convincing a general election audience of a centrist state to accept a nominee who advocates for the elimination of bail (even for violent criminals), wants to abolish ICE, backs the extremist BLM agenda, opposes gun rights for law-abiding citizens, and wants to defund local police departments, as even CNN concedes about the leftist Barnes.
ECONOMY
On this crucial topic, nearly all the news is awful for Trump and for the GOP. The reality is that the citizens of America have largely transferred their persistent economic angst from Biden and the Democrats to Trump and the Republicans.
Whether or not this assessment is fair, given the hangover of Bidenomics, it is simply the on-the-ground reality. This White House and the party as a whole must stop pretending that the economy is strong for regular people – they do not believe that narrative. In addition, do not borrow the insulting Joe Biden routine of lecturing people about their own financial circumstance, which they know all too well.
Right now, economic approval of Trump is upside down by -25%, with 28% approval and 53% disapproval. Overall job approval for Trump stands at 41% approve and 52% disapprove in Wisconsin.
On inflation specifically, here are the letter grades for Trump, according to Wisconsin voters:
A 9%
B 15%
C 18%
D 19%
F 38%
Among Independents, 4% give Trump an A while 39% give the president an F. Regarding food prices specifically, 2% of Independents give Trump an A vs. 40% assigning an F.
On this crucial issue, better, honest messaging would help tremendously. Tell the American people:
“We know times are difficult right now. Things are pointing upward, there are tangible green shoots growing, especially rising Real Wages. Investments pour into America and the numbers show the path back to prosperity. This task is job number one for the whole administration, to create the same kind of prosperity that flourished in the first Trump term before the Covid panic.”
2026 MIDTERMS
Despite all the economic angst out there, the country remains narrowly split on party preference for the midterms. In this bellwether swing state, the Democrats only enjoy a +2% lead on the generic 2026 ballot test, 44-42%. This result casts serious shade on that recent Marist poll showing Dems at +14% for 2026. The media fawned all over that projection, but it is wildly inaccurate in a very divided country.
Moreover, the Democrat Party brand remains in the gutter. In Wisconsin, the Dem party is only 30% approval vs. 57% disapproval. That giant -27% perception gap for the Democrats dwarfs the GOP ratio of only -12% as a party.
A stunningly high 32% of Kamala Harris voters disapprove of the Democrats…vs. only 12% of Trump voters who disapprove of the GOP.
So…the Republicans have a fighting chance for 2026.
They need to start messaging correctly on the economy, put dividend rebates into bank accounts by next summer, continue deportations to grow wages for citizens, and – most of all – focus at home.
President Trump has scored some historic wins overseas, and peace in Ukraine seems imminent. These diplomatic breakthroughs are amazing, but they matter little in the moment as citizens struggle to pay the grocery tab.
There are many warnings in this poll…but opportunity, too.
Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers. He directs political campaigns on media, polling, and Hispanic outreach, including Trump 2016/2020 and Vance 2022 US Senate. He is a former broadcaster for Fox News and CNN.