Virginia Poll: 2025 Republican Challenges and Opportunities
What strategies can work into this November?
New polling shows that Virginia continues to mostly lean blue, but with significant Democrat vulnerabilities that the GOP can capitalize on, with the right focus and discipline into the commonwealth’s decision day this November.
This poll of 1000 likely Virginia voters was conducted by Wick research for my advocacy organization, the League of American Workers.
Far and away the number one issue on voters’ minds is affordability, selected by 43% of Virginians, and doubling the number two item, “preserving democracy” which came in at 21%, mostly from Democrat voters.
On this same affordability theme, voters are not yet convinced that the recently passed “Big Beautiful” reconciliation package will improve their own finances, with 32% saying it will, 42% saying it will “hurt their finances,” and 11% saying it will have no effect. Notably, 15% are unsure about the huge reconciliation and tax package, so there is ample room for a lot of persuasion on this topic, especially if Real Wages continue to rise into next year’s 2026 midterms.
But, for now, this survey replicates what I have consistently found in national polling: people cannot afford their lives after the material harm inflicted by Bidenomics.
Yes, inflation has improved under President Trump, especially for staples like food and gasoline. But without broad prices going down, or wages really spiking higher, then the economic mood of the populace remains quite grim — and the GOP largely now owns this angst, with control of both the White House and Congress.
Right now, the statewide races show Sears at -10% for governor and Miyares at -7% for attorney general.
President Trump’s job approval is 36% positive, 53% negative, with the most negative ratings found in Northern Virginia, predictably.
But even in Northern Virginia, the Democrat Party is not popular either, with a tie 48-48% approve/disapprove. In comparison the far redder rest of the commonwealth really rejects the Democrat brand. For instance, in Eastern Virginia, 65% are unfavorable on the Dems.
Turning back to this November’s race, other than growing wages, what is a workable strategy for Virginia, especially for Republican nominee Winsome Sears?
Focus on the “car tax,” the Virginia levy on personal property — which remains super unpopular. Overall, 58% of citizens want it entirely eliminated. Another 22% want it reduced. Only 12% want to keep the unusual tax. 76% of Independents want the car tax eliminated or reduced.
Immigration also presents a GOP opportunity. A big propellant of higher incomes nationally flows from immigration enforcement. Removing illegal and unjust labor from the market has been a huge boon for American workers, and Virginians seem to understand those benefits. Even though Trump is not popular in the state, especially not in Northern Virginia, a supermajority 57% give him credit for securing the border. Even 23% of 2024 Kamala Harris voters in Virginia credit Trump’s border success!
Both Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares can capitalize on this agenda by emphasizing law-and-order in the commonwealth, and the pivotal role that state and local law enforcement agencies play in working alongside federal immigration enforcement.
Along that same line, a proposal in the Virginia Assembly to grant convicted felons the right to vote is hugely unpopular, with only 33% support for giving the vote to convicted violent criminals.
In addition, both Sears and Miyares can close their current polling gaps largely by persuading undecided voters who cast their ballots for Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin 4 years ago when he flipped the state in 2021. In this survey, right now Sears earns 82% support among Youngkin voters, while Democrat Abigail Spanberger gets 94% of McAuliffe supporters from 4 years ago, a material difference. But 9% of Youngkin voters remain undecided.
Similarly, in the attorney general race, right now Miyares earns 84% of Youngkin voters, with 9% of them undecided. In that AG race, Miyares and allies have a real opportunity to truly define just how radical the Democrat nominee is, Jay Jones.
How?
Well, for a statewide nominee, Jones is remarkably unknown to voters – in fact 57% of Virginians have no opinion or him or have never heard of him. With the right resources and messaging, the impressive incumbent AG Miyares can correctly position himself as the law-and-order public safety pick and Jones as the anti-cop radical.
Overall, Virginia is not an easy lift, but a winnable one. Focus on the car tax and broad law-and-order themes, with an emphasis on immigration.
Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group, and senior political advisor to Catholic Vote.
He is a former senior advisor to President Trump and JD Vance, plus a former commentator for Fox News and CNN.